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Water scenarios for the Zambezi River Basin, 2000 - 2050
Beck, Lucas ;  Bernauer, Thomas ;  Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften, Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik

HaupttitelWater scenarios for the Zambezi River Basin, 2000 - 2050
AutorBeck, Lucas
AutorBernauer, Thomas
Institution/KörperschaftFreie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften, Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik
Seitenzahl29 S.
Schriftenreihe
DDC320 Politik
ZusammenfassungConsumptive water use in the Zambezi river basin (ZRB), one of the largest freshwater

catchments in Africa and worldwide, is currently around 15-20% of total runoff.

This suggests many development possibilities, particularly for irrigated agriculture and

hydropower production. Development plans of the riparian countries indicate that consumptive water use might increase up to 40% of total runoff already by 2025. We have constructed a rainfall–runoff model for the ZRB that is calibrated on the best available runoff data for the basin. We then feed a wide range of water demand drivers as well as climate change predictions into the model and assess their implications for runoff at key points in the water catchment. The results show that, in the absence of effective international cooperation on water allocation issues, population and economic growth, expansion of irrigated agriculture, and water transfers, combined with climatic changes are likely to have very important transboundary impacts. In particular, such impacts involve drastically reduced runoff in the dry season and changing shares of ZRB countries in runoff and water demand. These results imply that allocation rules should be set up within the next few years before serious international conflicts over sharing the Zambezi’s waters arise.
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Fachbereich/EinrichtungProceedings of the Berlin Conferences on   Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Erscheinungsjahr2010
Dokumententyp/-SammlungenKonferenzvortrag
SpracheEnglisch
Rechte Nutzungsbedingungen
Anmerkungen des AutorsD8: Application of Scenarions
Erstellt am11.11.2010 - 14:04:02
Letzte Änderung23.01.2014 - 16:25:13
 
Statische URLhttp://edocs.fu-berlin.de/docs/receive/FUDOCS_document_000000007054
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