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Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth
Kerekes, Monika ;  Universität <Berlin, Freie Universität> / Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft

HaupttitelGrowth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth
AutorKerekes, Monika
Institution/KörperschaftUniversität <Berlin, Freie Universität> / Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft
Seitenzahl63 S.
Schriftenreihe Discussion Paper / School of Business & Economics ; 2009/11 : Economics
Freie SchlagwörterEconomic Growth; Regime Switching; Latent Class Models
DDC339 Makroökonomie und verwandte Themen
Auch erschienen in
ZusammenfassungAcknowledging the fact that the growth experience of countries is seldom well described
by the average growth rate, this paper aims at identifying countries that are similar in
terms of their growth process, thus emphasizing the dynamics of growth rates. To that
end, the growth experience of countries is interpreted as a Markov switching process with
countries switching between four distinct growth regimes: crisis, stagnation, stable growth,
and miracle growth. In the model, different growth patterns arise because countries switch
between the growth regimes with different frequencies. In order to account for the distinct
dynamics, the traditional Markov switching model is extended by a classification
mechanism that endogenously assigns countries exhibiting similar dynamics into the same,
and countries exhibiting distinct dynamics into different clusters. Three distinct growth
clusters are obtained: the first cluster consists of countries that have achieved relatively
fast and steady growth mainly by spending time in the stable and the miracle growth
regime. Countries in the second cluster have achieved only moderate growth and often
found themselves in stagnation for longer periods. The third cluster might be referred as a
growth failure cluster because the countries associated with this cluster have suffered from
small growth rates and frequent crises. It appears that developing countries can avoid
falling into the growth failure cluster by securing a minimum amount of human capital. In
contrast to that, the most distinguishing feature of the countries in the successful growth
cluster is their reasonable quality of institutions.
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Fachbereich/EinrichtungFB Wirtschaftswissenschaft
Arbeitsbereich/InstitutOsteuropa-Institut Wirtschaft
Erscheinungsjahr2009
Dokumententyp/-SammlungenBuch
SpracheEnglisch
Rechte Nutzungsbedingungen
Erstellt am05.08.2009 - 09:55:57
Letzte Änderung23.01.2014 - 16:20:11
 
Statische URLhttp://edocs.fu-berlin.de/docs/receive/FUDOCS_document_000000002844
DOI978-3-941240-05-6
Zugriffsstatistik
 

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