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Forecasting ECB monetary policy
Berger, Helge ;  Ehrmann, Michael ;  Fratzscher, Marcel ;  Universität <Berlin, Freie Universität> / Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft

Main titleForecasting ECB monetary policy
Subtitleaccuracy is (still) a matter of geography
AuthorBerger, Helge
AuthorEhrmann, Michael
AuthorFratzscher, Marcel
InstitutionUniversität <Berlin, Freie Universität> / Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft
No. of Pages39 S.
Series Diskussionsbeiträge des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft ; 2006/11 : Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe
Keywordsmonetary policy; ECB; forecast; geography; history; heterogeneity; Taylor rule; learning; transmission; survey data; communication
Classification (DDC)330 Economics
Also published in
AbstractMonetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.
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FU DepartmentDepartment Business and Economics
Year of publication2006
Type of documentBook
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Created at2008-06-16 : 09:39:53
Last changed2014-01-23 : 04:20:03
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